CarTrek Used Car Depreciation: Data and a Price-Tracking Worksheet
Used Car Depreciation: Data and a Price-Tracking Worksheet
Use current purchase offers when selling, comparable listings when shopping, and published depreciation studies when narrowing a model shortlist. Keeping those price types separate makes the tracker useful for the decision in front of you.
Build a dated price record with the worksheet below. The published research was checked November 2, 2026; worked vehicle prices are hypothetical examples to replace with your own listings and offers.
Separate measured history from a forecast
The iSeeCars 2026 depreciation study analyzed more than 950,000 five-year-old vehicles from March 2025 through February 2026. Its method compares modeled average asking prices with MSRPs adjusted to 2026 dollars, with specified exclusions.
Selected five-year depreciation results were:
| Group or model in the study | Value lost |
|---|---|
| Overall | 41.8% |
| Trucks | 34.2% |
| Hybrids | 35.4% |
| EVs | 57.2% |
| Toyota Tacoma | 19.9% |
| Tesla Model Y | 57.8% |
The study describes the five-year-old vehicles in its sample, measured against inflation-adjusted MSRP. Use it to compare historical retention across categories and models, then look up current offers for your exact vehicle.
By contrast, Kelley Blue Book’s 2026 awards use projected five-year residual values for new 2026 models:
| New 2026 model | KBB projected value retained after five years |
|---|---|
| Toyota Tacoma | 63.0% |
| Toyota Tundra | 59.9% |
| Toyota 4Runner | 58.0% |
| Ford Ranger | 53.4% |
KBB projects the share of original MSRP a new 2026 vehicle will retain in 2031. Keep this forecast separate from iSeeCars’ measured results for older vehicles: the two sources answer different purchase questions.
Choose the value relevant to your decision
Record the price type with every amount. A retail asking price belongs to a vehicle advertised for sale; a trade-in or direct-purchase offer represents a buyer’s proposed payment to you. A completed transaction provides a sale price.
For a purchase, track comparable retail or private listings and request the full price including mandatory fees. For a sale, collect current offers and estimate net proceeds after costs and any loan payoff.
For example, track a $24,000 retail listing and a $21,500 dealer purchase offer in separate columns. The $2,500 spread reflects different sides of the transaction and should stay visible when comparing sale channels.
When a listing disappears, record the outcome as unknown unless you can verify the completed sale. Save the last asking price and observation date so the vehicle remains in your history without turning an asking price into a transaction record.
Build a comparison set with the same specifications
Record the exact model year, trim, powertrain and drivetrain. Separate hybrids from gas models and different battery sizes in EVs. Include mileage, title status, accident disclosures, seller type, location and options that materially distinguish the vehicle.
Use a table like this for each observation:
| Field | Example entry format |
|---|---|
| Observation date | Date you saved the listing or offer |
| Vehicle identifier | VIN or listing ID |
| Configuration | Model year, trim, engine or battery, drivetrain |
| Mileage | Odometer shown |
| Price type | Asking price, purchase offer or completed sale |
| Price and fees | Amount plus separately disclosed charges |
| History and condition | Reported title status, damage and inspection findings |
| Validity | Offer expiration or listing status |
Compare low- and high-mileage examples within the same trim and age group. For damage or title differences, obtain an appraisal and inspection so the adjustment reflects that vehicle’s condition and buyer demand.
The National Motor Vehicle Title Information System provides title, odometer and brand-history information through approved reports. A history record helps identify differences between cars; it does not replace a physical inspection. Our used-car inspection checklist covers that separate step.
Use a median without mistaking it for an appraisal
Suppose five reasonably comparable listings have hypothetical asking prices of $21,900, $22,400, $22,700, $23,100 and $24,500. The median is the middle figure, $22,700.
Keep mileage and trim differences beside each listing. If the highest-priced example has substantially lower mileage, compare it separately or explain the distinction in your notes before using the median to guide an offer.
On the next observation date, record price changes for the same listings separately from new listings. A lower overall median could result from cheaper cars entering your sample, even if no existing seller reduced a price.
A useful tracker therefore has two views: the current comparable set and the history of each identifiable listing. Deduplicate repeated listings of the same VIN so one vehicle does not count multiple times.
Calculate your own depreciation basis
For personal budgeting, use the amount you actually paid for the vehicle and state whether taxes and fees are excluded.
Depreciation in dollars = purchase price − current comparable value.
Depreciation percentage = depreciation in dollars ÷ purchase price × 100.
Suppose you paid a hypothetical $30,000 for the vehicle before taxes and fees, and a current verified purchase offer is $21,000. The difference is $9,000, or 30% of that purchase price.
Against a $34,000 original MSRP, the same $21,000 value represents a 38.24% loss. Label each calculation’s starting value: actual purchase price measures your loss on the vehicle, while MSRP measures retention from the original sticker. Track insurance, interest, repairs, and registration separately.
For total ownership cost, start with the purchase price, add financing and operating expenses, and subtract net sale proceeds. Keep depreciation as an alternative summary of the purchase-to-sale difference to avoid counting that loss twice.
Track sale proceeds separately from equity
CarMax’s selling page describes offers valid for seven days, subject to verification of the vehicle’s condition, use and history. Its terms also say pickup availability and fees can vary. Save the offer and its conditions with the date.
Imagine a $21,000 offer, a $200 selling or pickup cost and an $18,000 loan payoff:
Net cash after sale = $21,000 − $200 − $18,000 = $2,800.
If the payoff were $22,000 instead, you would need $1,200 to cover the shortfall under the same assumptions. That loan position is different from the vehicle’s market value.
Compare sale channels using net proceeds after their fees. Then subtract the loan payoff to find the cash you receive or need to contribute. Record any applicable state trade-in tax benefit separately.
Run a range for future value
For a five-year ownership budget, test several possible resale values. Here are three assumed outcomes for a $30,000 purchase:
| Assumed resale value | Depreciation | Average annual depreciation |
|---|---|---|
| $12,000 | $18,000 | $3,600 |
| $15,000 | $15,000 | $3,000 |
| $18,000 | $12,000 | $2,400 |
Budget using a result you could comfortably absorb. If only the $18,000 resale outcome makes the purchase affordable, a lower purchase price or longer holding period may fit better.
For a constant-rate model, apply each year’s decline to the remaining value. An assumed 10% annual decline gives $30,000 × 0.90⁵ = $17,714.70 after five years, a cumulative loss of 40.95%. Compare that result with the range above and update the tracker as real offers become available.
Use actual offers for a near-term sale, comparable listings for shopping context and a range of outcomes for a distant sale. For a financing decision over a fixed period, the lease-versus-buy worksheet shows how resale value interacts with the remaining loan balance.